Home » Bias of the week » Ambiguity Effect
Researchers offered a prize for drawing a red ball from a container with 50% red balls, or a container with an unknown ratio of red and black balls.
Participants preferred a 50-50 risk for a prize, despite the chance that an alternative may have a higher probability of winning.
People choose known risks to avoid uncertainty, even if they might miss better opportunities.
See the full study here :
Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75(4), 643-669
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1884324
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