Hindsight Bias

Partcipants were asked to predict the outcome of the votation for supreme court nominee Clarence Thomas

Before the votation 58% predicted Thomas would be confirmed. After the sucessful confirmation, 78% claimed that they thought Thomas would be approved. 

We tend to look back at an unpredictable event and think it was easily predictable.

See the full study here :

Dietrich, D., & Olson, M. (1993). A demonstration of hindsight bias using the Thomas confirmation vote. Psychological reports72(2), 377-378.

Want to know more about biases?

Hindsight Bias

Gambler’s Fallacy

Google Effect

Osterich Effect