In a study, participants estimated the likelihood of negative events, like burglary or Alzheimer’s, and were then given the average likelihood for those events.
Even after being told the real probability of a negative event was 30%, participants still didn’t change their optimistic 10% estimate.
However, when their estimate was more pessimistic, they did adjust more closely toward the real probability.
We tend to be optimistic in predictions of future events: project deadlines, salary, and positive and negative events.
See the full study here :
Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941–R945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030
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