In a study, participants were asked to predict the outcome of the vote for a Supreme Court nominee
Before the vote, 58% of the participants predicted that the nominee “A” would be confirmed as Supreme Court justice
After the confirmation, 78% of the same participants claimed that they had predicted the approval of the nominee “A”
We tend to look back and think that an unpredictable event was easily predictable
See the full study here :
Dietrich, D., & Olson, M. (1993). A demonstration of hindsight bias using the Thomas confirmation vote. Psychological reports, 72(2), 377-378. https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1993.72.2.377
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